By Abdulmalik Abdulsamad
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has concluded plans to import about 13.62 million barrels of crude oil in May 2026, despite the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy aimed at ensuring steady supply to local refineries.
Findings indicate that the volume represents approximately 139.5 per cent of the refinery’s estimated 19 million barrels requirement for the period.
Checks showed that the Federal Government is expected to supply only about 6.15 million barrels, leaving a significant shortfall to be covered through imports by the management of the 650,000 barrels-per-day facility.
At the prevailing international price of $110 per barrel, the imported crude is projected to cost about $1.498 billion, equivalent to roughly N2.09 trillion at an exchange rate of N1,380.79 to the dollar.
Industry stakeholders have warned that the growing dependence on imported crude could sustain high fuel prices in the country, with Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, likely to remain above N1,300 per litre.
Fuel price hike looms — PETROAN
Speaking on the development, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Dr Billy Gillis-Harry, said rising costs of crude could trigger further increases in fuel prices.
He said, “Speculation and price hikes in refined petroleum products will become inevitable. Once prices become unstable and trend upward, transportation costs will rise, triggering inflation in food prices and other essential commodities.”
Dangote may prioritise exports — OGSPAN
Also reacting, the National President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria, Mazi Colman Obasi, noted that the refinery may prioritise exports to remain commercially viable.
“Dangote Refinery was not built to depend solely on Nigerian crude. This is not the first time it is importing crude. If it must import, then it will also need to export refined products to remain commercially viable,” he said.
Obasi, however, added that while exports could boost foreign exchange earnings, they may not significantly improve the living conditions of average Nigerians.
Experts urge FG to boost supply
In his contribution, the Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, described the situation as paradoxical, noting that Nigeria, despite being a major crude producer, still relies on imports to feed its largest refinery.
He urged the government to ensure consistent domestic supply, improve upstream production and security, and strengthen the naira-for-crude framework.
Another industry expert, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned that reliance on imported crude exposes the refinery to foreign exchange volatility, rising logistics costs, and global supply risks.
According to the expert, while imports may guarantee steady operations, they could increase production costs and put upward pressure on ex-depot fuel prices.
