Nigeria could record an estimated 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, according to projections by the Climate Impact Lab, as concerns grow over the potential effects of an unusually strong El Niño weather pattern.
The projection places Nigeria among the countries expected to experience the highest number of additional deaths linked to extreme heat globally. The researchers estimate that the wider Sahel region of Africa could record 66,800 additional heat-related deaths during the same period, with nearly half of the projected figure occurring in Nigeria.
The Climate Impact Lab, a research initiative based at the University of Chicago, estimates that extreme heat associated with the developing El Niño could contribute to approximately 451,000 additional deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027. The report also projects that the number of extremely hot days globally could rise by about 44 per cent compared with normal years.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving the periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It can influence weather patterns in different parts of the world, contributing to changes in temperature and rainfall. Scientists warn that the developing event could intensify extreme heat in already vulnerable regions, although its effects may vary across countries and locations.
The projected health risks raise concerns about the vulnerability of Nigerians who work outdoors, including farmers, construction workers, traders and transport operators, as well as older people, children and those with existing health conditions. Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion and potentially life-threatening heatstroke.
The researchers have stressed the importance of early intervention to reduce the potential loss of lives. Recommended measures include strengthening heat-warning systems, improving healthcare preparedness, providing access to drinking water and cooling facilities, and protecting outdoor workers from prolonged exposure to high temperatures.
The projections, however, do not mean that 31,400 Nigerians will certainly die. They represent an estimate of additional deaths that could occur compared with what would normally be expected, based on forecast temperatures and research into the relationship between heat and mortality. The actual impact will depend on weather conditions and the effectiveness of preventive measures.
The warning highlights the need for relevant government agencies, public health authorities and emergency management organisations to strengthen public awareness and preparedness ahead of the coming months.
Nigerians are also encouraged to take precautions during periods of intense heat by drinking sufficient water, limiting strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest parts of the day, seeking shade or cooler environments, and paying attention to official weather and health advisories.
